The Minnesota Twins once again will be watching the Fall Classic at home. Only good news is they bought the new 3D TV's... so they have that going for them. Just because they are done for 2010, doesn't mean it's any time to be sitting around. There are many decisions to be made in the coming months. The Twins must decide on who to keep from their own crop of free agents, who they can target from other teams, and possible trades they may be able to swing.
In 2010, the Minnesota Twins payroll eclipse 100 million for the first time. They were in the top 5 teams in attendance (thank you Target Field), and had the second highest TV ratings in baseball, trailing only the St. Louis Cardinals. It may seem odd then, that we are going to have to slash some payroll, but it's true. The most obvious area the Twins need to cut is in the Bullpen. They have Nathan making around 13 million, Capps looking at arbitration which could push his salary near the 7 million mark, Fuentes made 9 million last season and is in free agency, Rauch made 2.9 and is a free agent, and Crain and Guerrier made a combined 5.15 million last season and could both be due for a raise. I think Capps will be around to start 2011, but will be traded once Nathan can prove he is back. Fuentes will be gone. Too pricey, and he wants to close. Fuentes is a type B free agent, so the Twins could get a compensatory pick after the first round for him. Rauch is gone too I believe. Again, another type B free Agent. The biggest decision is on who to keep between Crain and Guerrier. Crain is a type B free agent, which could lead to more interest from other teams on him. Guerrier somehow is a type A free Agent, and I have a tough time believing a team would give up a first round pick to the Twins to sign him. So I think Crain may be gone (with yet another sandwich pick in first round) and Guerrier is back. Anthony Slama and Carlos Gutierrez will need to step up and be big contributers for the Twins next year.
Other decisions on the team need to be made on Carl Pavano and Orlando Hudson. Orlando Hudson is most definitely gone in my opinion. Alexi Casilla is sitting in waiting. Hudson also had the fortune of being labeled a type B free agent, so once again the Twins could receive another draft pick. (If you are counting, that is already 4 extra picks for the Twins). Pavano may be the most sought after Pitcher in free agency this year (not including Cliff Lee due to lack of team who can afford him). He will be a Type A free agent, which could net the Twins two more first round picks if he leaves. He will be pricey to re-sign. Probably somewhere in the 10 million a year range. This wouldn't be too bad, except Pavano is going to want 3 or 4 years, which I don't believe the Twins will be willing to risk. Mustache or no. So I believe Pavano is gone too.
JJ Hardy, Delmon Young, and Liriano are all due raises through arbitration next season. Liriano is definitely coming back. I expect the Twins to try and lock him up for up to three years this off season. Delmon Young will probably be on the roster next spring with a good raise (unless he is traded... more on that soon). JJ Hardy had a rough year with injuries, and it showed on the field. For up to 7 million dollars next year, Hardy is not a viable option at this price. I would expect the Twins to either trade him, or non-tender him, making him a free agent.
Possible trades... now this is where things could get interesting. The talk around the web is of a possible Zack Greinke trade. He is locked up for the next two years at 13 million a year, which is a relative bargain for an ace. The Twins could be possible trade partners here. I would look for them to offer a package of Delmon Young, Kevin Slowey, and possibly Aaron Hicks or Kyle Gibson. I would do it if Hicks were not included. Hicks will be our starting right fielder starting in 2012 and many years after that. To lose him would not be worth it, unless Greinke pitched the Twins to a World Series title over the next two years, which I don't believe he could. I think Young will be back, and possibly traded next off season, so the Twins can set their new outfield of Revere (in left), Span (in center), and Hicks (in right).
The Twins are among the best organizations in baseball in getting value for their dollar. I expect them to lose almost all these free agents in the coming months, and yet still compete in the American League. They are also one of the best teams in the league in scouting and development, so an extra 3 or 4 first round draft picks could pay major dividends for years to come.
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